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Prediction for CME (2025-08-17T10:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-08-17T10:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40624/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, STEREO A COR2, and GOES CCOR-1 imagery. The source is likely an eruption from Active Region 14179 (S17W15) starting around 2025-08-17T09:15Z as seen in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304, GOES SUVI 284/304, and STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery. Dimming is seen in SDO AIA 193 from the eruption site, and a clear deflection to the southeast can be observed. There is a coronal hole northeast of the eruption site which likely accounts for this deflection. Additionally, brightening can be observed from Active Region 14180 around 2025-08-17T09:15Z but it is unclear if this is related to the observed CME or not.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-08-20T19:32Z (-10.33h, +9.94h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
Time of Launch: 2025/08/17 09:45Z
Plane of Sky 1: 22:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 01:00Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction
POS Difference: 3:00
POS Midpoint: 23:30Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 13:15

Numeric View/Impact Type: +2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.17
Travel Time: ~6.17 * 13:15 = 81:47

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-08-20T19:32Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj


Forecast Creation Time: 2025/08/18 15:56Z
Lead Time: 51.55 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-08-18T15:59Z
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